Hyderabad: Rising global temperatures could sharply increase the spread of dengue in the coming decades, a new international study has warned. Researchers from the University of Washington, Stanford University, and the US National Bureau of Economic Research found that climate change may drive a 76 percent rise in dengue cases across Asia and the Americas by 2050.
Climate change linked directly to dengue spread
The study established a clear connection between rising temperatures and dengue transmission. Researchers said this was not just a future risk. Between 1995 and 2014, climate change was already responsible for an 18 percent increase in global dengue cases, resulting in 4.6 million additional infections annually.
According to the findings, the dengue-spreading mosquito thrives best at 27.8°C. As cooler regions heat up, the risk of outbreaks in densely populated areas will rise sharply. Countries such as Mexico, Peru, and Brazil could see dramatic increases in dengue incidence.
Millions at risk by mid-century
“Temperature effects are far stronger than we expected. Even small shifts have major consequences for dengue transmission. We are already seeing the impact of climate change,” said Marissa Childs, assistant professor at the University of Washington and lead author of the study.
Depending on greenhouse gas emissions, dengue cases could grow between 49 and 76 percent by 2050. In some regions, cases may even double, exposing nearly 260 million people to the disease.
The scientists stressed that mitigation measures such as strict climate action, mosquito control, stronger public health systems, and wider access to dengue vaccines would be critical to reducing this threat. The study has been published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
